Delightful Absurdity

Apple Event Predictions

I had a long post justifying some of these predictions but rather than try to do so I’ll just put them out there for the record just to see whether I’m right or not. I have no inside information and acknowledge that these predictions could be wildly wrong.


The “iWatch”, which is likely not what it will be named, will be announced for a planned release on Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving). Leaks that it will not ship until next year are to dampen expectations for an immediate launch.

It will not have an LCD display. It might have a few feedback lights (for instance, to signal a notification from your iPhone) but you will not be able to read notifications on the phone, much less run actual apps.

It may not tell time at all, but to the extent it does it will look like a standard $150 quartz watch you might buy from Fossil or Swatch or whatever brands are available in that price.

It will be worn around the wrist.

It will relay a surprising amount of health information to an iPhone, more than just movement information and heart rate.

It will be a secure mechanism for payments and boarding passes. Basically anything you put in Passbook can be conveyed to a terminal using this thing.

It will require an iPhone or iPod Touch to use. Android enthusiasts will gripe about this and predict its downfall as a consequence.

It will need to be recharged every seven days or less often.

It will use NFC and Bluetooth, not WiFi.

It will retail for $299-499, depending on style. It will come in at least five styles.

It will essentially be a super-powered Fitbit with mobile payments.

Android enthusiasts, Business Insider, and every analyst or journalist that’s been lampooned more than once by the Macalope will dismiss it as a really expensive Fitbit with mobile payments.

Apple enthusiasts and bloggers will hail it as a really cool, fashionable Fitbit with mobile payments.

Supply will be constrained through at least March 2015. They will sell 8 million of these things in the holiday quarter.

I will want one the day it is released, if not sooner, and will order at least one as soon as I can. (This is a prediction, not a certainty, but probably the most likely of any of my predictions.)

iPhone 6:

The iPhone 6 will come in two sizes, 4.0” and 4.7”. A 5.5” version is in the works but it will not get any mention in the September 9 event.

The 4” version will essentially be an updated 5s, with an A8 chip and a better camera but will otherwise look like a 5s. (Alternatively, it will look like a 5c, but I think that’s less likely.)

The 4.7” version will have a screen resolution of 1704 by 960 pixels, will be treated as a 568 x 320 point display, and will have whatever dpi that works out to be. Existing iPhone 5 optimized apps will be scaled upwards by a pixel factor of 3/2 to cover the entire screen (thus making tap targets about 17% larger.)

The 5.5” version, if and when it is released, will have a screen of the same pixel dpi as the 4.7” version.

The primary material for the back will continue to be anodized aluminum rather than plastic.

The iPhone 6 will have a sapphire screen.

The iPhone 6 will support NFC. Android enthusiasts will use this as a primary mocking point for being so late to the game.

All versions of the iPhone 6 will have an A8 processor, which will be compared primarily to the speed of the Intel processor in current low-end Macbook Airs rather than other mobile devices.

This is going out on a limb: the 4.0” iPhone 6 will retail for $549 unlocked, will be available for $99 with a standard contract (essentially, current 5c prices), while the 4.7” version will be available starting at $649/$199 and up, essentially current 5s prices. The 5.5” version, when it is released, will cost $50 more than the 4.7” version.

Base iPhone 6 models will continue to ship with 16 GB of storage. This will cause much griping and will be a selling point for high end Android devices that will ship standard with 32 GB storage or more.

Reminder: these are guesses based on what I know. I expect they will be significantly inaccurate. I am simply posting them here to record my expectations.


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